Donald Trump's Second Presidency: Assessing the Potential Impact on the EU-India Relations

Donald J Trump as the 47th President of the United States is identified as one of the most consequential leaders of the coming century. Among the regions most anticipating the potential impact of his presidency, the European Union (EU) is perhaps bracing the hardest for these forthcoming "consequences." 

Considering the strong possibility that the rhetoric of Trump’s first term will be reinvigorated, his second term bogs down the EU with multiple challenges, but also promises new opportunities. While it is a mixed bag for the EU, India is clearly among those international players who stand to benefit greatly from Trump’s second term as President. This translates to a strong possibility that the EU-India relations, particularly in the backdrop of Trade, Geopolitics and Defense Cooperation, and Political Ideology could reach historic heights in the coming years. 

Trade and Economic Policies

A prominent characteristic of Trump’s economic agenda has been tackling trade imbalances with unconventional measures. His promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada does not  manage its borders differently has been received with much criticism, and the EU too understands that this action could have grave impacts on its North American trade structure. He has also threatened to pull out of the Paris Agreement yet again, proving that trade will not be the only one of EU’s precious interests that will be negatively impacted. 

Trump’s aggressive isolationism and “America First” policies are definitely elements that will influence his take on international agreements like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). 

His regulatory preferences could undermine TTIP’s objective of harmonizing trade regulations across North America and the EU, and could challenge the EU’s stringent but impactful policies on environmental protection and digital privacy rights. This may affect trade negotiations, potentially shifting the balance of power in global trade relations.

 The EU will have to strategize around these shifts, and explore stronger ties with non-traditional trade partners. This could very well be the push required for the EU to finally ensure that its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India gets its seal of approval. After nine long years of it being shelved due to various disagreements, Trump’s acts that turn North America less conducive for trade might pave the way for an organic need to secure trade with India. With this, Indian businesses could expect a great boost in the EU market, with the FTA most likely favoring India’s side of the bargain in matters like tariffs and ease of market entry.

Geopolitics and Defense Cooperation

It is a point of almost unanimous agreement that the Trump Presidency would take Europe closer to India, not just economically but also geopolitically. A colder approach from the US means the EU will have to look elsewhere for building more meaningful defense partnerships to serve its long term geopolitical interests. 

Trump’s second term has changed the alignment of the US-EU interests in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Biden Administration offered almost unconditional support to Ukraine with the EU following suit, this will be the least likely direction chosen by Trump. The EU is now having to be prepared for two of these contingencies- Trump proposing a peace deal that favors Russia or at the very minimum, him drastically reducing Washington’s support to Ukraine.

India’s refusal to openly criticize Moscow on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a point of contention for the EU. A bilateral relation seldom affected negatively by geopolitics, this has been one of the rare occasions of what some may describe as a tier zero diplomatic tussle between the EU and India. However, Europe’s mild dissatisfaction with India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is going to be easily forgotten while juxtaposed with Trump’s heavily Russia-favored way of dealing with it. Hence, the potential disequilibrium that threatens Europe’s geopolitical interests in the region could also take the EU and India to the pre-Ukraine conflict era.

The likeliness of the EU turning to India for a military alliance specifically in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is almost non-existential. This is due to the longstanding Russo-Indian defense ties, and also because it is against India’s nature to be militarily involved on foreign soil, especially in the case of a conflict so far removed in the geographical sense. However, this could lead to the EU vying for bolder defense cooperation with India in the general sense. Frequent military exercises and fast-tracked defense deals can be by-products of this.

Trump’s hostility will certainly make the EU realize what it should have long understood by now: that security and defense profiles need to be diverse. Reducing reliance on the US military has always been a talking point in European politics- and there is no better time than now for the EU to build a more independent security policy that also factors in new partners. 

Regardless of the fact that Trump’s second term is bringing paradigm shifts in the EU’s defense and geopolitical strategies, it surely sets up a global theatre of unprecedented nature that presents the opportunity for a stronger EU-India defense partnership. 

Political and Ideological Nexus

Europe is more aligned with far-right ideologies today than it was in 2016, when Trump first took office. Trump who already maintains cordial relations with far-right leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is likely to form similar connections with figures like Italy's Giorgia Meloni or Austria's Karl Nehammer. His populist policies from the first term have deeply resonated with these EU leaders. Right-wing political ideology is sweeping across Europe, and although some of its agendas are detrimental to the EU’s fundamental objectives, it is a phenomenon that the EU cannot seem to escape. 

The current Indian political scene is also what one can describe as another hot bed of right-wing politics. All of the EU’s right-wing leaders share overwhelmingly positive relations with the sitting Indian government, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump’s second term in power could very well lead to the creation of a nexus between the far-right leaders of the EU, US and India. Historically, although India and the EU have been two of the strongest home grounds for concepts like democracy and globalization, this would be the first time these two regions would see eye-to-eye on such deep political ideology. If this nexus manifests into a more unified global political front between the EU and India, it would be mutually beneficial in all spheres of trade, economics, security, geopolitics, international agenda and so on. 

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s second term as US President will have a significant impact on the EU-India relations, while simultaneously reshaping the EU’s relationship with the rest of the world. Resisting Trump’s unilateralism with multilateralism is the way forward for the EU. On this note, unprecedented degrees of cooperation can be guaranteed with parties like India in areas varying from Trade, Defense and Banking to Tech, Clean Energy and Climate Action. 

The EU will be nudged to traverse new territories  in international alliances. New agendas will have to be set and managed through mindful diplomacy. This serves as the right moment for the EU and India to bond stronger with the help of their shared values and interests. 

The EU-India interactions during the next four years of Trump’s Presidency have the potential to define their respective global roles in the coming decades. Both the EU and India have the right reasons and assets to overcome the challenges in their bilateral ties and ensure they reap maximum benefits out of this lucrative partnership. 

This article has been written by Padmini AnilKumar